Omdia’s forecast of national last mile services comprises revenues earned by wholesalers for fixed last-mile broadband connections and carriage. This includes fixed and wireless point-to-point access such as xDSL, fiber, cable leased lines, fixed wireless access (FWA), and satellite. Globally, wholesale national last mile revenues are expected to increase from US$65.9 billion in 2019 to US$88.2 billion in 2025, a CAGR of 5%. Wholesalers are expected to take a larger share of total last mile revenues in markets where broadband penetration is higher, while wholesale growth will be lowest in mature markets where pricing pressure offsets increased connections. Wholesale growth rates are highest where current broadband penetration is comparatively low, such as South Africa, Nigeria, Mexico, and Brazil.
Broadband last mile services are well established in North America, Europe, and some Asia markets. There are regional differences based on different levels of last mile availability and of regulatory intervention to increase broadband roll-out and retail competition. Wholesale last mile services are generally less available in markets where governments retain ownership stakes in incumbent service providers, and where the cost of deployment exceeds return on investment.